Baton Rouge, LA, USA — For two years, I studied the Trump administration’s travel bans from his first term, which primarily targeted nations with significant Muslim populations and drew widespread criticism for their discriminatory appearance. As someone with an Iranian partner directly affected by these bans, I had a deeply personal connection to the issue. I initially believed we would not see another round of such policies, as I doubted Trump would win re-election. However, it appears this may be in Trump’s forthcoming plans.  

I dedicated countless nights to analyzing the travel bans from every angle: their stated purpose, the extent of multi-agency oversight, judicial injunctions, political advantages and drawbacks, safety considerations, public perception, and responses from citizens, diplomats, geopolitical experts, and the Department of Homeland Security. My research culminated in an article called, “How Iranians Are Barred From the West Through Reactive Visa Policies Fueled by Politics.”

It is unclear why Trump chose the specific countries he did for the bans, apart from possible personal or political animus. The decisions seemed to originate from a highly centralized process within the White House, with limited agency oversight. While the bans ostensibly aimed to punish or leverage “rogue” nations, they largely restricted ordinary citizens rather than addressing root geopolitical issues. Paradoxically, treaties permitting nationals from these countries to work at intergovernmental organizations like the UN remained in effect, potentially preempting the bans and creating a legal conflict. I explored this further in an article called, “The Attorney’s Guidebook to Handling UN and OAS Visas: Understanding the U.S.’ Obligations in IGO Visa Issuance.”

Nationality-based discrimination in visa policies is widespread globally. Nationalities such as Nigerians, North Koreans, and Iranians have often been subject to blanket bans. While these measures appear discriminatory, they rarely provoke significant public outcry or demand for reform. In an article called, “Why the Ability to Migrate Matters in Issuing Visa Restrictions and Punishments: The North Korean Example,” I examined the inconsistency in how so-called “rogue” nations are treated. For instance, North Korea is among the most hostile states yet faces fewer travel bans than Syria, despite posing a similar geopolitical challenge. 

Another factor influencing visa restrictions is migratory pressure. Countries with high migration potential often face stricter policies, but this is not always consistent. Mexicans and Venezuelans, for example, have significant visa-free access to the Schengen Area, even though they are considered high-pressure migratory groups for the U.S. This inconsistency underscores the complex interplay of geopolitics and diplomacy in shaping these policies. 

Diplomatic failures likely played a role in Trump’s travel bans. Experts, including DHS officials, agree that nationality is not a reliable indicator of terrorist threats or security risks. Additionally, the principle of reciprocity—where unfair restrictions on other countries could lead to retaliatory measures against U.S. citizens and diplomats—may have been considered but did not prevent the administration from imposing broad and poorly justified bans. 

Ultimately, these bans appeared to be more about political optics than strategic policy. They likely served as a signal to Trump’s voter base, demonstrating a hardline stance against perceived adversaries. However, judicial oversight exposed their arbitrary and contradictory nature, further undermining their legitimacy. 

Looking forward, there is speculation about a potential second travel ban under Trump, should he regain office. If implemented, such a ban could aim to amplify the impact of sanctions or tariffs on targeted nations or address perceived loopholes in the travel system, such as labor exploitation, smuggling, or regulatory violations. A “pause” in travel might be framed as a security measure but would likely follow the same flawed principles as the original bans. 

If such policies are reintroduced, they would again tarnish the nation’s reputation, perpetuating a legacy of reactive and discriminatory governance. I cannot imagine the efficacy of a widespread ban outweighing justice and fairness. Instead, ordinary people may be caught in the crossfire unintentionally.

• Article provided by Nicolas Garon.

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